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Crown Green Handicap

Paul Roberts

Team: Carr Mill BDivision: Division 3Last updated: 10/24/2026

Rating

666

Current Handicap

15
Honours
Season:

52

Matches Played

28

Wins

24

Losses

54%

Win Rate

8.2

Avg Win Margin

7.1

Avg Loss Margin

18-9

Home Record

10-15

Away Record

100%

Handicap Confidence

Very Reliable
52 / 41 matches for full confidence· Last recorded match: 9/1/2026

A large recent sample: 52 matches in the 2024, 2025, 2026 window, comfortably past the 41-match benchmark for full confidence. The handicap is stable and only shifts as form changes.

Milestones

Career

No career milestones yet — keep bowling!

Next goal: 50 Wins28/50
✦SEASON HIGHLIGHTS

No season milestones recorded yet.

Handicap Trend

All Time · 52 matches

+15 Rising
Win on the night Loss on the nightLower handicap = stronger player

The line re-checks the handicap after every match — from results, winning and losing margins, the strength of who was played, and home or away. Each dot is the number that applied going into the next game.

4 Jun6 Aug15 Apr3 Jun14 Apr2 Jun14 Jul1 Sept-14916

Gives 15 more chalks than at the start of this period.

Started0
Lowest0
Current15
Win Percentage(40%)
54%
score+0.08→contribution+0.03
Avg Winning Margin(25%)
8.2
score+0.03→contribution+0.01
Avg Losing Margin(15%)
7.1
score+0.15→contribution+0.02
Recent Form (last 20)(10%)
60%
score+0.20→contribution+0.02
Opponent Strength(10%)
706
score-0.27→contribution-0.03
Weighted Score+0.053
Sample Size Confidence
100%(52/41 matches)
Rating1016 → shrunk 1016→ adjusted 666
Recent 3-Season Rating (2024, 2025, 2026)666
Recency Blend40% (52 recent matches)
Final Rating666
Handicap
15

Formula: Rating = 1000 + (weighted score × 300). Each factor is normalized to −1…+1, multiplied by its weight, then summed. Window: factors are computed from the Handicap Calculation Years only (2024, 2025, 2026), excluding walkovers — the same window the official recalculation uses. Bayesian shrinkage: the raw rating is pulled toward 1000 by confidence (window matches ÷ 41, an adaptive threshold set by the last recalculation). Offsets: division and B/C/D team offsets are then applied, weighted by where each window match was played. Recency blend: the calculation years are re-weighted at up to 40% by match volume. Players with a long career but fewer than 5 window matches fall back to their full career record. Rating maps to handicap 0–15 (lower = stronger) via the league's spread multiplier.

League

28W24L52 matches·53.8% win rate
ClubSeasonsDivision(s)PWLWin %
Carr Mill B2024–2026Division 352282453.8%
DateOpponentH/AScoreResultMarginCompetitionDivision
9/1/2026Tim WaineH20-21LOSS-1LeagueDivision 3
8/26/2026Ian MurphyA21-20WIN+1LeagueDivision 3
8/18/2026Ian AppletonH21-12WIN+9LeagueDivision 3
8/12/2026Barry HollandA21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision 3
8/4/2026Graham HillH21-7WIN+14LeagueDivision 3
7/28/2026K MaraA21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision 3
7/21/2026Neil BradshawH21-14WIN+7LeagueDivision 3
7/14/2026Rob CulshawH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision 3
7/8/2026W PenningtonH20-21LOSS-1LeagueDivision 3
7/7/2026David HullA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 3
6/23/2026Bill AssonA21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision 3
6/16/2026Les HattonH21-12WIN+9LeagueDivision 3
6/10/2026Dave AthertonA7-21LOSS-14LeagueDivision 3
6/2/2026Mal PerksH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision 3
5/26/2026John KayA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision 3
5/13/2026David SandlandA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 3
5/5/2026Joseph KnocktonA4-21LOSS-17LeagueDivision 3
4/28/2026Ian MulcaheyH21-2WIN+19LeagueDivision 3
4/21/2026W PenningtonA21-9WIN+12LeagueDivision 3
4/14/2026James RobertsH21-14WIN+7LeagueDivision 3
4/7/2026Tim WaineA18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision 3
7/15/2025Les RobertsH4-21LOSS-17LeagueDivision 3
7/9/2025Jimmy NolanA16-21LOSS-5LeagueDivision 3
7/1/2025David HullH21-6WIN+15LeagueDivision 3
6/17/2025Brian ForsythH14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision 3
6/11/2025Alan TaggartA21-17WIN+4LeagueDivision 3
6/3/2025Bill ArnoldH18-21LOSS-3LeagueDivision 3
5/27/2025Ian HillA21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision 3
5/20/2025Roy BryanH21-12WIN+9LeagueDivision 3
5/13/2025Alan CrossA17-21LOSS-4LeagueDivision 3
5/6/2025Neil CunliffeA15-21LOSS-6LeagueDivision 3
4/29/2025Jim PenneyH21-19WIN+2LeagueDivision 3
4/22/2025Paul SandisonA11-21LOSS-10LeagueDivision 3
4/15/2025Frank DennettH21-9WIN+12LeagueDivision 3
4/9/2025Kevin HighcockA21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision 3
9/3/2024Bill MolyneuxH20-21LOSS-1LeagueDivision 3
8/27/2024Mike OxleyA14-21LOSS-7LeagueDivision 3
8/20/2024Robert PageH21-11WIN+10LeagueDivision 3
8/14/2024David DuffyA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 3
8/6/2024Anthony BurrowsH13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 3
7/30/2024John KerrA21-11WIN+10LeagueDivision 3
7/23/2024Paul BoltonH21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision 3
7/16/2024Mike SmithH21-10WIN+11LeagueDivision 3
7/9/2024Steve BrackleyA21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision 3
7/2/2024Martin JonesH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision 3
6/18/2024Dave RahmanH9-21LOSS-12LeagueDivision 3
6/4/2024Les TeelingH21-16WIN+5LeagueDivision 3
5/28/2024David CothamA12-21LOSS-9LeagueDivision 3
5/21/2024Dave OllertonH21-7WIN+14LeagueDivision 3
5/14/2024W PenningtonA19-21LOSS-2LeagueDivision 3
5/7/2024Jimmy NolanA13-21LOSS-8LeagueDivision 3
4/30/2024Craig PunshonH21-18WIN+3LeagueDivision 3

Current Streak

1losses

In a slump

Longest Win Run

7

Career best winning streak

Longest Loss Run

5

Career worst losing streak

Last 580% win rate
LWWWW
Last 1070% win rate↑ improving
LWWWWWWWLL
OpponentWLTotalWin %Last Met
W Pennington12333.3%7/8/2026
Tim Waine0220%9/1/2026
David Hull11250%7/7/2026
Jimmy Nolan0220%7/9/2025
Ian Murphy101100%8/26/2026
Ian Appleton101100%8/18/2026
Barry Holland101100%8/12/2026
Graham Hill101100%8/4/2026
K Mara101100%7/28/2026
Neil Bradshaw101100%7/21/2026
Biggest Win
Ian Mulcahey (+19)4/28/2026
Heaviest Defeat
Joseph Knockton (-17)5/5/2026
Best Season
202657% · 21 matches
Worst Season
202550% · 14 matches
Form Arc (1st half → 2nd half)
54% → 54%improving
Avg Opponent Rating Faced
70652 known · 0 unknown
vs Weak Opponents (rating < 1000)
28-2454% win rate
Division 353.8%
28W·24L·52 played

Debut

Apr 30, 2024

Latest

Sep 1, 2026

Seasons Active

3 (2.3 yr span)

Matches / Season

17.3 (52 total)

Seasons

202420252026